Analysis: Bitcoin Bear Market Pressured by Three Major Factors, but May Rebound to $100,000 by Year-End

On July 14, Bitcoin has been in a continuous decline since October last year, currently hovering around half of its historical high of $126,000, with the market still in a deep bear phase. Multiple industry analysts believe that Bitcoin is currently under pressure mainly due to three factors: the four-year cycle, macro inflation pressures, and market leverage liquidation.

Firstly, the long-standing "four-year cycle" of Bitcoin is affecting investor expectations. The Chief Investment Officer stated that over the past decade, Bitcoin typically experiences about three years of upward cycles followed by a year of adjustment, a pattern that has reinforced the market's cyclical trading psychology. As the end of 2025 approaches, some long-term holders have begun to reduce their positions, further increasing selling pressure.

Secondly, the macroeconomic environment has become an important factor in this round of adjustments. The research director pointed out that the rebound in U.S. inflation has weakened market expectations for interest rate cuts, leading investors to turn to traditional assets with higher yields and lower risks. Historical data shows that when the Federal Reserve maintains a low interest rate environment, Bitcoin often benefits; however, a rate hike cycle can put pressure on crypto assets.

Thirdly, excessive market leverage has amplified the downward pressure. Analysts noted that during the bull market, many investors expanded their Bitcoin exposure through borrowing and financing, but as the market weakened, the open interest in derivatives decreased, and the crypto treasury company model faced challenges. Previously, these companies had bought large amounts of Bitcoin through stock and debt financing, but their stock prices have fallen by about 75% since last October.

However, despite the short-term pressure, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's future. The Chief Investment Strategist expects Bitcoin to potentially bottom out this summer and rebound after a shift to accommodative monetary policy and easing geopolitical conflicts, with a year-end target price of $100,000. The research director anticipates that Bitcoin's short-term bottom may be around $58,000, with future trends still influenced by Federal Reserve policies, corporate Bitcoin purchasing behavior, and the progress of U.S. crypto regulatory legislation.

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