Cardano (ADA) Targets $1.03 Breakout as ETF Approval Odds Hit 75%

On May 2, 2025, Cardano formed a classic head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. A head and shoulders is a reversal pattern that shows three peaks: the left shoulder, a higher head, and a lower right shoulder, all resting on a horizontal or slightly sloped neckline. When price breaks above this neckline, it often signals a trend reversal from bearish to bullish. In this chart, the neckline lies around the $0.7445 level. Once price clearly breaks above this line with strong volume, the pattern activates. According to standard charting rules, the breakout target is measured by the height from the head to the neckline. In this case, the projected move after breakout is 35%, which would take ADA to approximately $1.03. ADA faces resistance near the neckline zone at $0.7445, which has capped recent attempts to rally. Once the breakout occurs, the next resistance appears near $1.03, the pattern target. Below current levels, key support comes from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.6891. This dynamic support has helped price bounce multiple times in April. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 57.30, moving upward but not yet overbought. This suggests momentum supports a potential bullish breakout. Cardano ETF Approval Odds Rise to 75%, Bloomberg Reports Meanwhile, on May 2, 2025, Bloomberg Intelligence reported a 75% chance that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot Cardano (ADA) ETF. This estimate places ADA in the same tier as other major cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin and XRP, signaling strong confidence from analysts. Grayscale submitted the ETF application on Feb. 10, 2025, and the SEC’s final deadline for a decision is October 23, 2025. The proposal has already passed two critical steps—acknowledgment of the 19b-4 form and the initial S-1 review—both required for ETF progress. Since the SEC is likely to classify ADA as a commodity, the path to approval appears smoother. If the agency confirms this status and grants approval, it would mark a major step toward regulated ADA exposure for institutional investors. This could increase demand and liquidity for Cardano across U.S. markets.