Do Agents Really Need Blockchain Payments?

Author: Lao Bai

I just spent half an hour reading @Leozayaat's magnificent article.

It was a bit of a brain workout, but it offered some interesting thoughts, especially regarding the future of the Agent Economy.

Previously, it was widely believed that the best entry point for Crypto in the economic activities of the Agent world was payments. In fact, there has been a prevailing view in the industry over the past two years - that blockchain is not designed for humans, but for Agents, as having a wallet is so easy and micro-payments are very suitable.

Just a couple of days ago, DragonFly's @hosseeb tweeted a similar viewpoint, which he also discussed at 2049. He believes that his previous judgment was incorrect; Agents do not need Crypto, but we humans do.

The "not needed" he refers to mainly pertains to payments.

In the past year, companies like Visa and Stripe have been actively laying out Agent payments, and the vast majority of Agent payments are completed through traditional card organizations and the financial world, with Crypto protocols like X402 accounting for a negligible share.

Agents indeed need payments, but that does not mean they require an entirely new payment network.

If we say that the new scenarios of the Agent Economy are not about payments, but rather something else, what about the financial markets?

Leo's article discusses this matter.

Let me briefly summarize the framework of the original text.

"
The Agent Economy may go through three stages.

The first stage: Agents buying from humans. Agents represent humans to purchase services like APIs, data, and computing power. The core issue is how to enable Agents to make autonomous payments.

The second stage: Agents buying from agents. Agents begin to purchase services from each other, shifting the focus from payment to fulfillment: how to ensure the other party delivers? The article suggests using Bonds / Collateral to constrain Agents. For Agents that can create identities infinitely, reputation can be easily abused, while truly confiscable collateral is a more reliable constraint.

The third stage: Disposable Markets. The most imaginative part.

For example: an Agent temporarily needs 1,000 hours of GPU computing power to complete a task but is concerned that the supplier may not deliver on time. It can create a market on demand, allowing other participants to price the specific risk of "whether the supplier can deliver on time" and bear the corresponding risk with funds.

Markets do not need to be listed in advance, nor do they need to recruit market makers beforehand. As long as there is real demand, it can attempt to find capital willing to bear the risk.

This means that the financial market itself can become a kind of on-demand infrastructure.

"
Now, let me share my thoughts after reading it.

1. The payment in the first stage indeed feels somewhat "falsifiable" regarding X402, which is also the reason Haseeb actively "admits his mistake." Of course, the track is still in its early stages, and it is too early to assert that this will not happen.

2. The reputation in the second stage is what ERC8004 is working on, similar to X402. Based on current data, it is also a somewhat "falsifiable" track. Leo's original text contains evidence for this viewpoint, so I won't elaborate further. In simple terms - "having an on-chain identity does not equal having a trustworthy reputation; having a reputation record does not equal having a real transaction history; the cost for Agents to inflate their reputation is extremely low."

3. The third stage, Disposable Markets - is where Agents can create one-time markets on demand, price specific risks, and seek capital willing to bear those risks.

This represents a brand new economic form. Logically, it makes sense in a silicon-based life world, as their search for information, discovery, decision-making, communication, and pricing is completely different from human society, and their efficiency is several orders of magnitude higher than that of humans.

Whether it is truly like this, no one knows. This is merely a deduction, but at least it is logical and opens up new imaginative spaces and possibilities.

Especially with the recent launch of Grok Bot and Meta Muse, it feels like it will accelerate the evolution of the Agent Economy. Various new forms of financial markets will undoubtedly emerge, and it will not just be about payments.

If you have time, I still recommend reading the original text, which discusses various economics and finance experiments conducted with Agents in foreign laboratories. It's very interesting.

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