Does Ethereum's $2,300 support risk giving way with the withdrawal of U.S. investors?

Ethereum fell towards $2,310 on Thursday after a brief rally to $2,350, following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain its benchmark interest rate range at 3.75%--4.00%.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10--2 to keep rates steady after the 25 basis point increase in September.

Officials described economic activity as growing strongly despite rising geopolitical uncertainty, while also emphasizing that inflation remains high.

The committee stated that incoming data will guide the assessment of the policy needed to bring inflation back to the 2% target.

ETH initially gained about 1% after the announcement, although the decision was widely anticipated. However, it lost those gains and is now down 2.1% in the last 24 hours.

CME FedWatch data showed that markets assigned a greater than 90% probability to unchanged rates.

Attention now shifts to Thursday's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report, which could influence expectations for the Fed's next move.

Outflows from Ethereum ETFs and weak U.S. demand keep the $2,300 level in focus.

The bearish performance comes as CryptoQuant data suggests that demand from U.S.-based investors remains sluggish.

The Ethereum Coinbase Premium Index fell to -0.181 on Monday, the lowest level since February, before slightly rising to -0.142 on Tuesday.

The metric compares ETH prices on Coinbase and Binance. Negative readings indicate that ETH is trading at a discount on Coinbase, which may suggest relatively stronger selling pressure or weaker buying demand on that exchange.

The index has remained below zero since early September, highlighting the difficulty in sustaining a recovery.

Spot ETFs on Ethereum in the U.S. recorded net outflows of $60.2 million on Tuesday, followed by another $21.41 million on Wednesday, according to SoSoValue.

This marked the third consecutive session of withdrawals, adding to an already substantial monthly total. Further redemptions could put October on track to become the month with the largest outflow since the launch in July 2024.

Persistent redemptions contradict the recent rebound in ETH's price and indicate that demand through ETF products has not yet strengthened.

Ethereum falls below the 200-day EMA

The daily ETH/USD chart remains bearish as it has fallen below the 200-day exponential moving average near $2,316. At the time of writing, ETH is trading at $2,309 per coin.

The bearish performance follows Ethereum's failure to surpass the 100-day EMA at $2,362 on Wednesday.

However, a sustained move above the 200 and 100-day EMAs in the short term would improve short-term prospects and bring $2,411 into focus.

Further resistances are located at the 20-day EMA near $2,424 and the 50-day EMA around $2,450. Surpassing that cluster would strengthen the chances of a move towards $2,548.

On the downside, the first significant support is at $2,287, the low from the previous week. Below that, the next levels identified in the analysis are $2,256, $2,204, and $2,107.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to 35, while the Stochastic Oscillator has climbed to 33 after reaching the oversold zone.

Bearish readings suggest that selling pressure has increased, as the RSI remains below the neutral level of 50.

CoinGlass data showed $81.5 million in liquidations in ETH over the last 24 hours, including $41 million in short positions. The concentration of short liquidations is consistent with pressure on bearish traders during the rebound.

For buyers, holding $2,287 and surpassing the resistance zone of $2,355--$2,362 remain immediate tests.