Millennium Explores Investment Signals Using Prediction Market Data

Millennium Management, a large U.S. hedge fund, is working on ways to utilize prediction market data from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi in its investment strategies for traditional financial assets. Millennium is developing tools for portfolio managers to analyze prediction market data, although it is not currently trading prediction market contracts directly. Some portfolio managers have shown interest in prediction market data related to geopolitical events, economic indicators, and commodity prices, planning to use this information for investment decisions regarding existing assets. Prediction markets are platforms where participants trade on the outcomes of real events such as elections, sports games, and economic indicators, with monthly nominal trading volumes reaching tens of billions of dollars. Susquehanna International Group and Jump Trading have already entered the market, and AQR Capital Management is also expanding its research personnel related to prediction markets. However, Wall Street financial firms are cautious about direct trading due to legal and regulatory risks. Recently, Millennium raised $22 billion in new funds, with assets under management totaling $97 billion and a year-to-date return of 8.1% as of September this year.