Next week's macro outlook: Focus on US-Iran negotiations and changes in the Federal Reserve personnel, with the Middle East situation repeatedly disturbing the market
According to Jinshi reports, global markets significantly rebounded over the past week driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, but core uncertainties remain unresolved. Iran once announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rapid decline in oil prices, a broad strengthening of risk assets, U.S. stocks reaching new highs, a weakening dollar, and gold approaching the $4900 mark. However, Iran subsequently signaled that it "is still under military control," combined with the U.S. maintaining sanctions against Iran, which has heightened market concerns about the volatility of the situation.
On the macro level, the biggest variable next week will still be the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations. U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations may advance over the weekend and warned that if an agreement is not reached by next Wednesday, the ceasefire could end, and there is a risk of renewed conflict; meanwhile, Iran's attitude towards negotiations remains cautious, especially with significant differences on key issues such as uranium enrichment. The market has currently shifted from "pricing in conflict escalation" to "pricing in a path to easing," but any sudden changes could still trigger sharp asset fluctuations.
In terms of interest rate expectations, the decline in energy prices has alleviated inflationary pressures, and the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year have risen to about 60%. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will attend a Senate hearing next week, and his policy stance (especially whether it leans dovish) will become an important variable affecting gold and risk assets.
On Tuesday at 20:30, U.S. March retail sales month-on-month;
On Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18;
On Thursday at 21:45, U.S. April S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI preliminary;
On Friday at 22:00, U.S. April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value, one-year inflation expectations final value;
In the short term, the market's main focus will revolve around three major variables: progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, oil price trends, and signals from the Federal Reserve.
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