Buy Crypto- Markets
Futures- Spot
- Copy Trade
- Earn
- More
On-chain Data Academy (Part Seven): A Brand New, Ark-involved $BTC Magical Pricing Methodology (II)
Original Article Title: "On-Chain Data Classroom (VII): A Brand New Set, Ark Participated Research on the Magical Pricing Methodology of $BTC (II)"
Original Article Author: Mr. Berg, On-Chain Data Analyst
If you are not familiar with Cointime Price yet, it is recommended to read the first article: "On-Chain Data Classroom (VI): A Brand New Set, Ark Participated Research on BTC's Magical Pricing Methodology (I)"
TLDR
- The Cointime Price series consists of three articles, this being the second article
- This article will introduce the application method of Cointime Price in top avoidance
- This article will introduce a personally designed deviation model
1. Brief Review of Cointime Price
The concept of Cointime Price originates from Cointime Economics, which evaluates BTC's fair price in a "time-weighted" manner.
Compared to simply Long-Term Holders (LTH) and Short-Term Holders (STH), Cointime Price is more elastic, sensitive, and can effectively exclude the influence of ancient lost BTC.
The first article detailed Cointime Price and its buy-the-dip application. If you already understand the concept, let's officially delve into today's topic: top avoidance application
2. Top Avoidance Application Methodology: Cointime Price Deviation Model Design
Cointime Price Deviation is one of the models I designed during my on-chain data research and has been applied in the weekly top avoidance analysis report.
Related Tweet: [Top Avoidance Model Introduction](https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1870763628645032213)
The following text will explain the model's design principles and how to use the model to assess BTC tops. All content in this article is original research, the research process is not easy, so please show your support
1. Quantifying Current Price Deviation from Cointime Price
Why Measure Deviation?
- The Cointime Price highly represents the true holding cost of BTC chips, especially for Long-Term Holders (LTH).
- Since Long-Term Holders have a greater impact on the Cointime Price, when the BTC current price is significantly higher than the Cointime Price, the profit-taking motivation of Long-Term Holders increases, which may trigger distribution behavior.
· Calculation Formula: Deviation Rate = (Current Price - Cointime Price) / Current Price
· Observing Deviation Rate (Distribution Rate)
As shown in the chart, we can obtain the Distribution Rate curve (purple line). We can see that: whenever the Distribution Rate is at a high level, it often corresponds to the BTC top.
So, how do we define a "high level"? Next, we will use statistical methods to address this issue.
2. Cointime Price Deviation Extreme Value Definition
If we observe historical data, we will find that the high points of Deviation are not fixed; in each bull market cycle, the peak value of Deviation slightly decreases. Therefore, it is not rigorous to solely use a fixed numerical value to define a "high level."
To address this, I adopt the concept of statistical "standard deviation":
· Calculate the mean and standard deviation of historical Deviation data.
· Define "Mean + n standard deviations" as the "high level (top signal)," referred to as the Threshold.
· Smooth the Deviation data with a moving average to reduce noise.
· When the moving average value of Deviation> Threshold, trigger a top signal.
· Why Use Standard Deviation?
· The historical trend of Deviation exhibits mean reversion characteristics (as shown in the chart).
· Standard deviation measures volatility, so when BTC price volatility decreases, the Threshold will also dynamically adjust, providing more elasticity.
As shown in the above diagram, after the above processing, we can get such a diagram.
· Supplementary Explanation
- In point 2, "Mean + n Standard Deviations," n is an adjustable parameter: the larger n is, the lower the probability of vertex signal occurrence, and the model is more stringent.
- Point 3's moving average smoothing: mainly filters out short-term market fluctuations to improve signal reliability.
3. Top Escaping Signal Example
As shown in the figure, when the purple line (Distribution Ratio) exceeds the orange line (Threshold), the corresponding BTC price is often at a phase top.
III. Conclusion
This article is the second in the Cointime Price series, continuing the concepts of the previous article, sharing how individuals can design a top escaping model using Cointime Price.
· Summarize Core Points:
- Cointime Price Deviation quantifies the deviation of the current BTC price from the Cointime Price, speculating on the distribution motivation of long-term holders, used to determine the BTC top.
- The "Standard Deviation" method is used to dynamically define top signals to ensure the model is more adaptive.
- The model has been practically applied in weekly reports and can effectively capture BTC high-level signals.
Future Plans:
- The third article in this series will continue to explore the application of Cointime Price in escaping the top, so stay tuned.
You may also like
US AI Startup Goes All In on Chinese Mega-Model | Rewire News Morning Brief
Trump Lies Again: A "Five-Day Pause" Psyop, How Wall Street, Bitcoin, and Polymarket Insiders Synced Uposciogen
When a Token Becomes Labor, People Become the Interface
Ceasefire News Leaked Ahead of Time? Large Polymarket Bets on Outcome Before Trump's Tweet
BlackRock CEO's Annual Shareholder Letter: How is Wall Street Using AI to Keep Profiting from National Pension Funds?
Sun Valley Releases 2025 Financial Report: Bitcoin Mining Revenue Reaches $670 Million, Accelerating Transformation to AI Infrastructure Platform
On March 16, 2026, in Dallas, Texas, USA, CanGu Company (New York Stock Exchange code: CANG, hereinafter referred to as "CanGu" or the "Company") today announced its unaudited financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. As a btc-42">bitcoin mining enterprise relying on a globally operated layout and dedicated to building an integrated energy and AI computing power platform, CanGu is actively advancing its business transformation and infrastructure development.
• Financial Performance:
Total revenue for the full year 2025 was $688.1 million, with $179.5 million in the fourth quarter.
Bitcoin mining business revenue for the full year was $675.5 million, with $172.4 million in the fourth quarter.
Full-year adjusted EBITDA was $24.5 million, while the fourth quarter was -$156.3 million.
• Mining Operations and Costs:
A total of 6,594.6 bitcoins were mined throughout the year, averaging 18.07 bitcoins per day; of which 1,718.3 bitcoins were mined in the fourth quarter, averaging 18.68 bitcoins per day.
The average mining cost for the full year (excluding miner depreciation) was $79,707 per bitcoin, and for the fourth quarter, it was $84,552;
The all-in sustaining costs were $97,272 and $106,251 per bitcoin, respectively.
As of the end of December 2025, the company has cumulatively produced 7,528.4 bitcoins since entering the bitcoin mining business.
• Strategic Progress:
The company has completed the termination of the American Depositary Receipt (ADR) program and transitioned to a direct listing on the NYSE to enhance information transparency and align with its strategic direction, with a long-term goal of expanding its investor base.
CEO Paul Yu stated: "2025 marked the company's first full year as a bitcoin mining enterprise, characterized by rapid execution and structural reshaping. We completed a comprehensive adjustment of our asset system and established a globally distributed mining network. Additionally, the company introduced a new management team, further strengthening our capabilities and competitive advantage in the digital asset and energy infrastructure space. The completion of the NYSE direct listing and USD pricing also signifies our transformation into a global AI infrastructure company."
"As we enter 2026, the company will continue to optimize its balance sheet structure and enhance operational efficiency and cost resilience through adjustments to the miner portfolio. At the same time, we are advancing our strategic transformation into an AI infrastructure provider. Leveraging EcoHash, we will utilize our capabilities in scalable computing power and energy networks to provide cost-effective AI inference solutions. The relevant site transformations and product development are progressing simultaneously, and the company is well-positioned to sustain its execution in the new phase."
The company's Chief Financial Officer, Michael Zhang, stated: "By 2025, the company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth through its scaled mining operations. Despite recording a net loss of $452.8 million from ongoing operations, mainly due to one-time transformation costs and market-driven fair value adjustments, the company, from a financial perspective, will reduce its leverage, optimize its Bitcoin reserve strategy and liquidity management, introduce new capital to strengthen its financial position, and seize investment opportunities in high-potential areas such as AI infrastructure while navigating market volatility."
The total revenue for the fourth quarter was $1.795 billion. Of this, the Bitcoin mining business contributed $1.724 billion in revenue, generating 1,718.3 Bitcoins during the quarter. Revenue from the international automobile trading business was $4.8 million.
The total operating costs and expenses for the fourth quarter amounted to $4.56 billion, primarily attributed to expenses related to the Bitcoin mining business, as well as impairment of mining machines and fair value losses on Bitcoin collateral receivables.
This includes:
· Cost of Revenue (excluding depreciation): $1.553 billion
· Cost of Revenue (depreciation): $38.1 million
· Operating Expenses: $9.9 million (including related-party expenses of $1.1 million)
· Mining Machine Impairment Loss: $81.4 million
· Fair Value Loss on Bitcoin Collateral Receivables: $171.4 million
The operating loss for the fourth quarter was $276.6 million, a significant increase from a loss of $0.7 million in the same period of 2024, primarily due to the downward trend in Bitcoin prices.
The net loss from ongoing operations was $285 million, compared to a net profit of $2.4 million in the same period last year.
The adjusted EBITDA was -$156.3 million, compared to $2.4 million in the same period last year.
The total revenue for the full year was $6.881 billion. Of this, the revenue from the Bitcoin mining business was $6.755 billion, with a total output of 6,594.6 Bitcoins for the year. Revenue from the international automobile trading business was $9.8 million.
The total annual operating costs and expenses amount to $1.1 billion.
Specifically, they include:
· Revenue Cost (excluding depreciation): $543.3 million
· Revenue Cost (depreciation): $116.6 million
· Operating Expenses: $28.9 million (including related-party expenses of $1.1 million)
· Miner Impairment Loss: $338.3 million
· Bitcoin Collateral Receivable Fair Value Change Loss: $96.5 million
The full-year operating loss is $437.1 million. The continuing operations net loss is $452.8 million, while in 2024, there was a net profit of $4.8 million.
The 2025 non-GAAP adjusted net profit is $24.5 million (compared to $5.7 million in 2024). This measure does not include share-based compensation expenses; refer to "Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures" for details.
As of December 31, 2025, the company's key assets and liabilities are as follows:
· Cash and Cash Equivalents: $41.2 million
· Bitcoin Collateral Receivable (Non-current, related party): $663.0 million
· Miner Net Value: $248.7 million
· Long-Term Debt (related party): $557.6 million
In February 2026, the company sold 4,451 bitcoins and repaid a portion of related-party long-term debt to reduce financial leverage and optimize the asset-liability structure.
As per the stock repurchase plan disclosed on March 13, 2025, as of December 31, 2025, the company had repurchased a total of 890,155 shares of Class A common stock for approximately $1.2 million.
The US AI Startup Is Loving China's Open Source Model
Three Weeks of the US-Iran War: Who's Making Money, Who's Paying the Bill?
Interpreting Polymarket's Major Update Last Night: Fee Expansion, Self-Regulation, and New Incentives
From Human Application to Intelligent Collaboration: How GOAT Network Builds the Next Generation Digital Economy
CZ Washington Dialogue: Crypto Entrepreneurs are Accelerating Their Return to the United States
Morning Report | Strategy increased its holdings by 1,031 bitcoins last week; Katana Blockchain acquires IDEX; NYSE completes rule change to eliminate trading limits on crypto ETF options
Electric Capital: Tracking 501 types of yield-generating RWA assets, we discovered these patterns
Those who are cut off by AI will not disappear; they will become the creators of the next round of the economy
Stablecoins reshaping cross-border payments in Asia? Strategic panorama and investment opportunity analysis
Zuckerberg is building an AI agent to help him as CEO
Bloomberg: Swiss Private Bank Old Guard Rifts, Is Bitcoin the Spark?
Zuckerberg is building an AI assistant to help him be CEO
US AI Startup Goes All In on Chinese Mega-Model | Rewire News Morning Brief
Trump Lies Again: A "Five-Day Pause" Psyop, How Wall Street, Bitcoin, and Polymarket Insiders Synced Uposciogen
When a Token Becomes Labor, People Become the Interface
Ceasefire News Leaked Ahead of Time? Large Polymarket Bets on Outcome Before Trump's Tweet
BlackRock CEO's Annual Shareholder Letter: How is Wall Street Using AI to Keep Profiting from National Pension Funds?
Sun Valley Releases 2025 Financial Report: Bitcoin Mining Revenue Reaches $670 Million, Accelerating Transformation to AI Infrastructure Platform
On March 16, 2026, in Dallas, Texas, USA, CanGu Company (New York Stock Exchange code: CANG, hereinafter referred to as "CanGu" or the "Company") today announced its unaudited financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. As a btc-42">bitcoin mining enterprise relying on a globally operated layout and dedicated to building an integrated energy and AI computing power platform, CanGu is actively advancing its business transformation and infrastructure development.
• Financial Performance:
Total revenue for the full year 2025 was $688.1 million, with $179.5 million in the fourth quarter.
Bitcoin mining business revenue for the full year was $675.5 million, with $172.4 million in the fourth quarter.
Full-year adjusted EBITDA was $24.5 million, while the fourth quarter was -$156.3 million.
• Mining Operations and Costs:
A total of 6,594.6 bitcoins were mined throughout the year, averaging 18.07 bitcoins per day; of which 1,718.3 bitcoins were mined in the fourth quarter, averaging 18.68 bitcoins per day.
The average mining cost for the full year (excluding miner depreciation) was $79,707 per bitcoin, and for the fourth quarter, it was $84,552;
The all-in sustaining costs were $97,272 and $106,251 per bitcoin, respectively.
As of the end of December 2025, the company has cumulatively produced 7,528.4 bitcoins since entering the bitcoin mining business.
• Strategic Progress:
The company has completed the termination of the American Depositary Receipt (ADR) program and transitioned to a direct listing on the NYSE to enhance information transparency and align with its strategic direction, with a long-term goal of expanding its investor base.
CEO Paul Yu stated: "2025 marked the company's first full year as a bitcoin mining enterprise, characterized by rapid execution and structural reshaping. We completed a comprehensive adjustment of our asset system and established a globally distributed mining network. Additionally, the company introduced a new management team, further strengthening our capabilities and competitive advantage in the digital asset and energy infrastructure space. The completion of the NYSE direct listing and USD pricing also signifies our transformation into a global AI infrastructure company."
"As we enter 2026, the company will continue to optimize its balance sheet structure and enhance operational efficiency and cost resilience through adjustments to the miner portfolio. At the same time, we are advancing our strategic transformation into an AI infrastructure provider. Leveraging EcoHash, we will utilize our capabilities in scalable computing power and energy networks to provide cost-effective AI inference solutions. The relevant site transformations and product development are progressing simultaneously, and the company is well-positioned to sustain its execution in the new phase."
The company's Chief Financial Officer, Michael Zhang, stated: "By 2025, the company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth through its scaled mining operations. Despite recording a net loss of $452.8 million from ongoing operations, mainly due to one-time transformation costs and market-driven fair value adjustments, the company, from a financial perspective, will reduce its leverage, optimize its Bitcoin reserve strategy and liquidity management, introduce new capital to strengthen its financial position, and seize investment opportunities in high-potential areas such as AI infrastructure while navigating market volatility."
The total revenue for the fourth quarter was $1.795 billion. Of this, the Bitcoin mining business contributed $1.724 billion in revenue, generating 1,718.3 Bitcoins during the quarter. Revenue from the international automobile trading business was $4.8 million.
The total operating costs and expenses for the fourth quarter amounted to $4.56 billion, primarily attributed to expenses related to the Bitcoin mining business, as well as impairment of mining machines and fair value losses on Bitcoin collateral receivables.
This includes:
· Cost of Revenue (excluding depreciation): $1.553 billion
· Cost of Revenue (depreciation): $38.1 million
· Operating Expenses: $9.9 million (including related-party expenses of $1.1 million)
· Mining Machine Impairment Loss: $81.4 million
· Fair Value Loss on Bitcoin Collateral Receivables: $171.4 million
The operating loss for the fourth quarter was $276.6 million, a significant increase from a loss of $0.7 million in the same period of 2024, primarily due to the downward trend in Bitcoin prices.
The net loss from ongoing operations was $285 million, compared to a net profit of $2.4 million in the same period last year.
The adjusted EBITDA was -$156.3 million, compared to $2.4 million in the same period last year.
The total revenue for the full year was $6.881 billion. Of this, the revenue from the Bitcoin mining business was $6.755 billion, with a total output of 6,594.6 Bitcoins for the year. Revenue from the international automobile trading business was $9.8 million.
The total annual operating costs and expenses amount to $1.1 billion.
Specifically, they include:
· Revenue Cost (excluding depreciation): $543.3 million
· Revenue Cost (depreciation): $116.6 million
· Operating Expenses: $28.9 million (including related-party expenses of $1.1 million)
· Miner Impairment Loss: $338.3 million
· Bitcoin Collateral Receivable Fair Value Change Loss: $96.5 million
The full-year operating loss is $437.1 million. The continuing operations net loss is $452.8 million, while in 2024, there was a net profit of $4.8 million.
The 2025 non-GAAP adjusted net profit is $24.5 million (compared to $5.7 million in 2024). This measure does not include share-based compensation expenses; refer to "Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures" for details.
As of December 31, 2025, the company's key assets and liabilities are as follows:
· Cash and Cash Equivalents: $41.2 million
· Bitcoin Collateral Receivable (Non-current, related party): $663.0 million
· Miner Net Value: $248.7 million
· Long-Term Debt (related party): $557.6 million
In February 2026, the company sold 4,451 bitcoins and repaid a portion of related-party long-term debt to reduce financial leverage and optimize the asset-liability structure.
As per the stock repurchase plan disclosed on March 13, 2025, as of December 31, 2025, the company had repurchased a total of 890,155 shares of Class A common stock for approximately $1.2 million.
App