ChainCatcher reported that JPMorgan analysts expect the U.S. Treasury to rely more heavily on short-term borrowing in its upcoming quarterly refunding announcement. In that preview, net borrowing from private investors is projected at $2.038 trillion this year and $2.202 trillion by 2027, while privately held outstanding short-term Treasury bills are expected to rise by $401 billion in 2026 and $991 billion in 2027.

What JPMorgan Expects From the Treasury

According to ChainCatcher’s account of JPMorgan’s forecast, the Treasury may increase the scale of short-term borrowing in its next quarterly refunding announcement, rather than announce an already-decided policy change. The report links this view to higher borrowing from private investors and larger outstanding balances of privately held Treasury bills over the next two years.

The reported forecast puts net borrowing from private investors at $2.038 trillion this year and $2.202 trillion by 2027. It also cites two bill-related figures: privately held outstanding short-term Treasury bills rising by $401 billion in 2026 and by $991 billion in 2027.

A Treasury-source snippet from an earlier refunding statement helps explain why analysts are focusing first on bills. The Treasury said it would continue to assess near-term borrowing needs and make further adjustments to bill auction sizes as appropriate. This supports the view that bills are among the Treasury’s more flexible funding tools, but does not confirm that an increase has been decided for November.

The reported figures should therefore be viewed as forecast estimates, not official Treasury targets. The supplied reporting does not specify whether the bill figures refer to net issuance, private-sector absorption, or changes in outstanding privately held balances.

When the Treasury’s Official Answer Is Due

Treasury-source search snippets point to a two-step schedule for the next refunding cycle: preliminary quarterly refunding materials on November 2, 2026, followed by the quarterly refunding announcement on November 4, 2026. These are the next official checkpoints for determining whether the Treasury changes its bill guidance or keeps its funding mix broadly in line with previous practice.

The timing matters because the current report remains an analyst preview. The Treasury schedule turns the vague reference to “next week” into a clearer sequence: first the supporting documents, then the main refunding statement, where any change in the borrowing mix would become official.

Search snippets from the Treasury’s refunding pages also indicate that the November 4 announcement is the formal event to watch for confirmation or rejection of JPMorgan’s view. Until then, the forecast remains a market expectation rather than a Treasury decision.

Key Dates and Forecast Figures

The forecast figures below are drawn from ChainCatcher’s account of JPMorgan’s preview, while the dates come from Treasury-source search snippets identifying the next refunding sequence.