China's fiscal revenue rose 5.1% by September, but land sales continue to decline

**China's fiscal revenue increased by 5.1% year-on-year between January and September 2026, although the decline in land sales and the moderation of spending indicate the pressures that public finances continue to face.

• Fiscal revenue reached CNY 17.2 trillion in the first nine months, compared to a growth of 5.7% recorded until August.
• China achieved 81% of its annual quota for net issuance of local special bonds and plans to advance part of the 2027 quota.
• Revenue from land sales fell by 27.9% year-on-year amid a real estate contraction that began in mid-2021.

🇨🇳📉 China collects more, but land sales drop
Fiscal revenue rose 5.1% by September, to CNY 17.2 trillion. Growth moderated compared to the 5.7% recorded until August.
Revenue from land sales fell by 27.9%. The issuance of local special bonds... pic.twitter.com/LKm6wXfDHS

--- Diario฿itcoin (@DiarioBitcoin) October 23, 2026

China's fiscal revenue grew by 5.1% year-on-year during the first nine months of 2026, reaching CNY 17.2 trillion, according to data from the Ministry of Finance. The pace was slower than the 5.7% increase recorded between January and August, as authorities accelerated the issuance of local special bonds and land sales continued to show a sharp decline.

Tax revenue advanced by 6.1% during the period, compared to a growth of 1.2% in non-tax revenue. At the same time, fiscal spending increased by 1.0% year-on-year, below the 1.2% rise recorded during the first eight months. Overall, the figures show expanding revenues, but a moderation in both total revenue and spending.

Revenue grows, but loses momentum

The accumulated data until September allows us to observe two distinct trends within China's public accounts: fiscal revenues remain in positive territory, but their growth rate has decreased compared to the previous cut. The 5.1% increase includes a stronger performance of tax revenues, which rose by 6.1%, and a more limited advance of non-tax revenues, which grew by 1.2%.

In nominal terms, the Ministry of Finance placed total revenues for the period at CNY 17.2 trillion, equivalent to USD 2.58 trillion according to the published conversion. The figure provides a reference for the size of the accumulated revenue, although it does not break down which activities or taxes explained the movement or how much each source contributed to the year-on-year variation.

The comparison with the data from January to August helps clarify the change in pace: the advance went from 5.7% to 5.1% when September was included. This difference does not mean that revenues have decreased in absolute terms, but that the accumulated growth compared to the same period of the previous year was less pronounced.

Reuters reported that the Ministry communicated the results on Friday, October 23, 2026. The tax figure, with a 6.1% increase, outpaced the pace of non-tax revenues, but the published information does not attribute this gap to a specific cause nor detail which specific components drove or limited each category.

Local bonds and public spending

Ministry of Finance official Zhao Zeyong said at a press conference that China accelerated the issuance of local special bonds this year and plans to advance part of the quota corresponding to 2027. The announcement places these instruments within the fiscal strategy described by the authorities, although the published information does not specify the schedule or the amount of the future quota that would be issued beforehand.

Between January and September, the net issuance of special bonds reached CNY 3.56 trillion, equivalent to 81% of the annual quota. This percentage indicates that most of the limit set for the year had been utilized by the end of the period, but the report does not provide a figure for the remaining quota balance nor details on how the issuance would be distributed over the remaining months.

The issuance in September was CNY 633.5 billion, an increase of CNY 214.8 billion compared to the same month last year, according to Zhao. The monthly figure shows a year-on-year acceleration in that month and complements the accumulated total, although it should not be confused with the net issuance over the nine months, which corresponds to a different measure and period.

At the same time, accumulated fiscal spending grew by 1.0% year-on-year, compared to 1.2% up to August. This slower pace coexisted with a bond issuance that authorities claim to have accelerated, but the released data does not establish a direct relationship between both variations nor allows concluding that spending was reduced: it continued to increase, albeit at a lower rate.

The Decline in Land Sales Maintains Pressure

Government revenues from land sales fell by 27.9% year-on-year during January-September. The contraction moderated compared to the 28.6% drop reported for the first eight months of the year, but the result still reflects a pronounced reduction in this source of resources for local administrations.

The report places this decline in the context of the contraction of the Chinese real estate sector, which began in mid-2021. The prolonged weakness of the market has coincided with lower revenues from land sales, described in the information as a crucial source of financing for local governments.

The improvement of 0.7 percentage points in the rate of decline, from 28.6% to 27.9%, does not equate to a recovery of land revenues. It indicates that the year-on-year contraction was somewhat less intense in the accumulated to September than in the accumulated to August, while the level of revenues remained below that recorded in the comparable period of the previous year.

The fiscal picture thus gathers signals of different signs: total revenues increased, taxes grew more than non-tax revenues, and the issuance of special bonds advanced rapidly concerning the annual quota. At the same time, spending lost some momentum and land sales continued to fall sharply. The overall situation helps to understand the pressures on local finances, without anticipating results that the report does not provide.

What the Figures Show and What They Do Not Allow to Conclude

The exchange rate reported in the information was USD 1 to CNY 6.6711. This equivalence serves to interpret the conversion of fiscal revenues to dollars, but does not change the fact that the official data is originally expressed in yuan and that the year-on-year comparison refers to the growth reported in the local currency.

The published indicators describe the period from January to September and compare their results with the same months of the previous year. They do not contain a closing forecast for 2026 nor an estimate of the future effect of advancing part of the 2027 bond quota, so any calculation about the rest of the year would require additional information that does not appear in the report.

It is also advisable to separate the performance of total revenues from the behavior of their components. The growth of 5.1% does not imply that all fiscal sources have improved: land revenues, in particular, fell by 27.9%, while the tax and non-tax categories recorded advances of 6.1% and 1.2%, respectively.

For local administrations, the most persistent data is the pressure derived from the real estate decline on a source of funding that the report qualifies as crucial. The issuance of special bonds and the plan to advance part of the 2027 quota are part of the response communicated by the Ministry, but the available information does not quantify how much they would compensate for the loss of income from land.

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