Dan Held Predicts SpaceX Valuation Could Reach 100 Trillion Dollars

Dan Held, an early Bitcoin investor, predicts SpaceX could achieve a valuation of 100 trillion dollars within 20 years, driven by decreasing launch costs that will open markets in missile defense, satellite internet, and rocket travel. He highlights the potential drop in the cost of sending a kilogram of cargo to orbit from 20,000 dollars during the Space Shuttle era to as low as 10 dollars with Starship. Held discussed these insights on The Rollup podcast, noting he sold most of his stake in cryptocurrency exchange Kraken five years ago to invest in SpaceX, drawing parallels to his early belief in Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million. He cites Starlink as a successful example, suggesting it could compete with telecom carriers rather than just internet providers. Additionally, he links the technology to missile defense, proposing that orbital detection of rocket launches could enable the U.S. to intercept threats quickly. Other applications include orbital data centers and point-to-point travel, potentially reducing a New York-to-Tokyo flight to 25 minutes. Held estimates the total addressable market for space infrastructure could surpass global economic output, predicting SpaceX's valuation could reach 10 trillion dollars in three years if Starship production scales effectively, and 100 trillion dollars by the time he is in his late fifties. Despite volatility in SpaceX shares, which have fallen 35% from their peak, other investors like Cathie Wood express strong confidence in the company's future.

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