Divergence in Bitcoin Investor Confidence After CPI Data Release

Bitcoin has been oscillating this week between sustained buying pressure and short-term caution. The overall U.S. CPI met expectations, but the core inflation month-on-month exceeded forecasts, intensifying concerns over rising interest rates. After the data release, BTC fell to around $76,700, rebounded to near $80,000, and then retreated back to the $77,000 range. There is a gap between long-term demand and short-term selling pressure: the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for three consecutive weeks, with corporations and long-term investors continuing to accumulate; however, spot demand remains weak, with Binance's BTC reserves reaching a two-year high, and derivative selling pressure has intensified while open interest has not sufficiently decreased. Investors have shifted from FOMO to avoiding losses. Signs of stablecoin liquidity and buying activity on Coinbase indicate that demand has not disappeared, but confidence among buyers and sellers is diverging. The macro environment still dominates, with rising oil prices, high bond yields, and inflation concerns potentially limiting new liquidity.