Polymarket primary favorites lost 4% despite 87% win rate

Backing the favorite on prediction market Polymarket in every scored 2026 US primary would have resulted in a 4% loss, despite those candidates winning 87% of the time, according to Bitquery's scorecard dated Oct. 9. The analysis indicates a distinction for election bettors between the likelihood of winning and the value of the contract. Bitquery found that the candidate with the highest reference price won 238 of 273 Senate, House, and governor primaries. However, the hypothetical strategy of placing 1 dollar on each favorite at the reference price lost four cents per dollar. Candidates priced at 90 cents or more won 177 of 182 races, while favorites priced between 50 and 90 cents won 71% of the time at an average price of 77 cents. The study highlights that buying an expensive favorite offers limited profit on a winning share, while a losing share results in a total loss. The methodology used reference prices based on trades from the 24 hours before voting day, with adjustments for stale trades. Nine markets were excluded from the study due to various reasons, and the analysis covered primaries across all 50 states using Polygon trade data.

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