Rising Oil Prices Recalibrate the Landscape for Argentine Investors: Which Alternatives Are Gaining Ground

The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has once again placed oil at the center of the financial scene. This Wednesday, Brent surpassed $100 per barrel, while WTI was close to $96, on a day marked by new attacks and heightened fears about global supply. By Thursday, Brent had already exceeded $105.

The movement has a mainly geopolitical explanation. The tension between the US and Iran, attacks on energy infrastructure, and difficulties in transportation routes have raised the risk premium of crude oil.

For Argentine investors, however, the question is not only how much higher the barrel can rise, but also how to position themselves without being exposed to a potential correction. The scenario opens opportunities in oil and energy, although it also increases the volatility of global markets and may keep interest rates high.

In this context, analyst and advisor Mariano Monferini offers a cautious perspective. "Oil prices have risen due to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. However, I believe that the market is beginning to coexist with that risk, as happened at various stages of the war in Ukraine," he noted.

According to his analysis, the movement is still part of the volatility associated with the conflict and does not necessarily imply a structural change. Nevertheless, he warns that a new escalation could completely alter the geopolitical landscape.

Moreover, for the expert, crude oil is not currently the only factor that investors should monitor. "I think the market is now more attentive to the performance of US Treasury bonds, especially in the long end of the curve," he stated.

Long-term US rates have risen again: the yield on the 10-year Treasury reached 4.837%, its highest level since November 2023. In this context, it is interpreted that the market is also incorporating concerns related to the US fiscal deficit.

Therefore, his recommendation is clear: "With indices near their highs, elevated long-term rates, and an additional risk from the conflict that, for now, I consider limited, I would maintain a conservative stance." The strategy aims to prioritize liquidity and short-duration fixed income with good credit quality, rather than chasing a rise in oil that has already been significant.

Meanwhile, consultant Fernando Villar proposed a broader strategy for those looking to take advantage of the movement. "In light of rising oil prices, investors can speculate on both oil futures on the Argentine stock exchange and, if they have accounts abroad, with ETFs or oil futures as well," he explained.

The local alternative exists: Matba-Rofex offers futures and options on WTI oil, instruments that allow exposure to crude prices without physically purchasing the asset. However, these are instruments with risk and leverage potential, making them more suitable for sophisticated profiles.

Another possibility is shares of US oil companies, such as ExxonMobil and Chevron, or sector ETFs. Villar specifically mentioned the XLE, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF, which concentrates companies in the energy sector.

For conservative profiles, the executive pointed to an alternative directly linked to Argentina: Vaca Muerta.

"Gaining exposure through fixed income (negotiable obligations) can be a good idea. This week we had auctions from Tecpetrol and also from YPF, but we will likely see more issuances in the short term.",