Bitcoin Gains Strength, but CryptoQuant Detects Weakness in the Market

• The recovery of volume is a positive sign, but it does not alone confirm a bull market.
• Bitcoin rose 24% while spot and perpetual futures volumes increased significantly.

Bitcoin is regaining strength in the market, although the composition of this movement still raises doubts about its ability to maintain current price levels. An analysis by CryptoQuant indicates that demand in the spot market remains weak, while derivatives are regaining significant weight in price dynamics.

According to CryptoQuant analysts, this behavior is similar to what occurred between January and February and again between March and May 2026, when futures drove recoveries while spot demand lagged or remained in negative territory. For the firm, a price advance not accompanied by sustained purchases in the spot market offers a less convincing signal about the strength of the trend.

Bitcoin ETFs also modified their behavior. After accumulating USD 3.52 billion in net inflows during August, they recorded USD 463 million in outflows between September 7 and 11. This means that a source of demand that had accompanied the recovery lost strength, while the spot market also shows insufficient signals to take over, as explained by CriptoNoticias.

In parallel, CryptoQuant data shows a divergence between markets: perpetual futures maintain an expansion of demand, while direct purchases of bitcoin in the spot market continue to contract. Thus, the price retains momentum, but with a greater weight of derivatives than of spot demand.

This composition makes the rally more dependent on positioning in derivatives than on sustained spot demand. Therefore, CryptoQuant recommends paying greater attention to risk management and not assuming that the advance will necessarily continue, as it could be more exposed to sharp changes in sentiment if futures stop supporting it.

On the other hand, data shows that bitcoin trading volumes, both in the spot market and in perpetual futures, increased significantly on August 21. The rally occurred after both markets reached activity levels that were among the lowest in several years during the bearish phase. Futures continue to provide demand, while the spot market remains in negative territory. Source: CryptoQuant.

This time, the increase in volume presented a difference compared to other recent episodes. While large spikes in activity had mainly coincided with massive sales, the increase recorded in August occurred during a 24% rise in the price of bitcoin. According to CryptoQuant, this suggests that buying operations had greater weight.

This scenario could indicate a sign that the market is beginning to leave behind the bearish phase and is moving towards a more bullish stage. However, the contraction of spot demand and the recent change in ETF flows keep the possibility of a correction open, according to experts.

The context also comes after warnings about euphoria among retail investors and the risk that excessive optimism could end up increasing selling pressure. For the rally to gain a more solid base, CryptoQuant data suggests that direct purchases in the spot market should begin to accompany the momentum currently maintained by derivatives.

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