BTC Challenges 64,000 After Breaking 63,000, Market Trading 'Manageable Risks'

On July 10, the global market continues to price in three main lines: the Federal Reserve's institutional reforms, the U.S. AI capital race, and the uncertainties of geopolitical situations in the Middle East.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh officially announced five major reform working groups covering core areas such as inflation, balance sheets, economic data, productivity, and policy communication, involving leaders from the tech industry, academia, and businesses. This indicates that the market needs to focus not only on interest rate policies but also on whether the Federal Reserve's decision-making framework is gradually changing, including reducing forward guidance, redefining economic data, and adjusting balance sheet management. The uncertainty of future policies may be higher than in the past few years.

On the other hand, capital expenditures in the AI industry continue to expand. With the launch of the GPT-5.6 series models, Micron announced it would increase its investments in the U.S. to over $250 billion, denying any surplus in computing power and asserting that renting out computing power also holds commercial value. This shows that large tech companies are still investing in AI infrastructure, making AI an important line attracting global funds.

In terms of geopolitics, the U.S.-Iran conflict remains in a state of "military confrontation and technical negotiations coexist." Although both sides have engaged in military actions, the ceasefire agreement has effectively become a mere formality. However, technical negotiations have not ceased, and the U.S. has not resumed full military operations. Oman has publicly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz, reflecting that all parties are still trying to maintain the order of energy transportation and reduce the likelihood of a full-scale conflict. The market is currently not trading on peace but rather on the short-term opportunity for the global energy supply chain to maintain basic operations.

Additionally, Deutsche Bank pointed out that the structure of U.S. attraction of overseas capital is gradually shifting from "buying U.S. Treasuries" to "buying U.S. stocks," with the stability of the dollar increasingly relying on the economic cycle of the AI industry rather than traditional safe-haven demand. If this trend continues, future global capital flows will become more concentrated in tech assets with high growth expectations, which also means that the volatility of the dollar and risk assets may increase simultaneously.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin successfully broke through the $63,000 resistance zone yesterday, with nearly $79.5 million in short positions liquidated in the past 24 hours, pushing the price to test $64,000 at one point. Currently, $64,000 remains the most important short-term resistance level. If it can stabilize effectively, it indicates that market risk appetite may further improve; conversely, if the breakout fails, attention should be paid to the short-term fluctuations caused by profit-taking. Overall, the market is not rising due to the disappearance of negative factors but is readjusting the risk premiums of various risk assets against the backdrop of global institutional reforms, AI capital expansion, and geopolitical risks not being fully out of control.

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