Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting Preview: Interest Rate Pause and Policy Direction Assessment

The Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decision for October will be announced on October 29, with the market widely expecting a pause in interest rate hikes. If a rate hike is chosen, it would be a rare policy action before the U.S. elections. There may be 2 to 3 dissenting votes against the rate hike, with Logan and Hamack most likely to support an increase. If the policy statement focuses on financial stability, it may be viewed as dovish; if concerns about inflation and energy prices intensify, it may be seen as hawkish. Any adjustments in the wording of the statement, such as retaining "timely return to target" or emphasizing "action when necessary," would suggest that there is still room for tightening. The press conference by Waller is expected to continue in a concise and pragmatic style, without providing clear forward guidance, and the tone may lean towards an objective statement of the current situation. Waller will explain the decision to hold steady in October and maintain flexibility for policy actions in December, while also potentially being asked to interpret the high and falling signals of U.S. Treasury yields, as well as the stock market sell-off triggered by artificial intelligence and measures to address potential bubbles.

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