Iran Rebuilds Missile Power... "Capable of Producing Hundreds to Thousands" - WSJ

[Mexico City = Shim Young-jae, Special Correspondent] Iran has reportedly resumed the production of ballistic missiles despite large-scale airstrikes from the United States and Israel. Analysts suggest that Iran is restoring its missile capabilities by assembling warheads, airframes, and guidance/control systems that were stockpiled before the war in underground facilities.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 10th (local time), citing U.S. and Middle Eastern officials, that Iran has resumed ballistic missile production using stockpiled components. Although the scale of production is more limited than before the war, WSJ noted that the weakening of Iran's missile program, which the U.S. and Israel had touted as a major achievement of the war, is being partially reversed.

Assembly of Both Liquid and Solid Fuel Missiles

According to WSJ, Iran's missile production facilities and industrial sites were heavily targeted in the early stages of the war. However, it is currently assembling both liquid-fueled and solid-fueled ballistic missiles.

Liquid-fueled missiles require fuel to be injected just before launch, while solid-fueled missiles can be stored with fuel already loaded, allowing for immediate launch readiness.

Intelligence agencies have identified activities at several underground facilities, including the Koojir missile facility in southeastern Iran. WSJ reported that Iran is also pursuing the construction of new underground assembly facilities to avoid further attacks.

Currently, production primarily involves assembling existing stockpiled components. The production volume is also limited compared to before the war.

The U.S. and Israel have destroyed numerous industrial facilities that produce missiles and related components. Maritime blockades have made it difficult to import parts and solid fuel raw materials.

Nevertheless, the components stored in underground facilities are forming the basis for the resumption of production.

Jim Ransom, a visiting researcher at King's College London and former CIA analyst, explained that Iran had stockpiled completed warheads, airframes, and guidance/control systems before the war. He analyzed that the number of missiles that can be newly produced depends on the scale of the stockpiled components and the number of currently operational underground facilities.

Ransom stated, "It could be hundreds, or it could be thousands."

Tal Inbar, a senior analyst at the U.S.-based Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, assessed that Iran currently possesses thousands of ballistic missiles.

WSJ analyzed that the resumption of missile production demonstrates the difficulty of completely dismantling Iran's missile program.

The U.S. and Israel made the destruction of Iran's missile program one of their primary objectives when the war began on February 28. In the early stages of the war, they conducted thousands of attacks targeting production facilities, storage sites, missiles, and launchers.

The U.S. Department of Defense maintains that Iran's military production capabilities have been severely compromised.

Sean Parnell, the chief spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Defense, stated that the U.S. has destroyed up to 90% of Iran's drone and ballistic missile capabilities and significantly weakened its missile and drone launch capabilities.

A White House official also mentioned that Iran's nuclear facilities have been destroyed and its military power has been severely weakened. He stated, "Iran is weaker than ever, and President Donald Trump will never allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons."

U.S. Air Defense and Attrition Warfare... Iran Rebuilds Power During Summer

According to WSJ, Iran has used the relatively quiet combat period this summer to rebuild its military power. There is also a belief that a ceasefire will not last long.

A U.S. official suggested that Iran may have resumed low-rate production after reaching a preliminary agreement with President Donald Trump in mid-June to open the Strait of Hormuz and initiate peace negotiations.

At that time, Iran was assessed to be able to assemble at least hundreds of missiles using only the components it possessed.

Iran reduced the scale of attacks as it depleted its stock of completed missiles during the war. However, WSJ reported that it still possesses considerable production and attack capabilities.

Iran continues to launch missile attacks against U.S. military bases in the Middle East. Some attacks have utilized the Khybar Shekan missile, which is mobile, highly accurate, and relatively low-cost to produce.

WSJ reported that on the 9th, Iran launched a large-scale missile attack targeting a Jordanian airbase where U.S. troops are stationed. Iran frequently used this type of missile early in the war to burden Israel's air defense systems.

Recently, attacks targeting U.S. naval vessels have also continued. Some attacks came close, but no actual naval vessels were hit, according to WSJ.

The resumption of production in Iran could also impact the attrition warfare involving missile and interceptor missile stocks. WSJ explained that while Iran maintains its missile supply, the interceptor missile stocks of the U.S. and Gulf countries are decreasing.

Satellite images have also captured signs of recovery. Iran is rebuilding from bridges and roads to production facilities, and it has reopened tunnel entrances to missile bases that were destroyed by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes.

The Israeli military assessed that the weapons stored inside the underground facilities may have been preserved in relatively good condition.

However, there are still constraints in restoring mass production to pre-war levels. Chemical facilities necessary for liquid fuel production have been damaged, and industrial mixing equipment required for solid fuel manufacturing has also been hit.

Iran built its missile program in the 1980s during the war with Iraq, in the absence of a modern air force. Since then, it has utilized missiles as a core power to deter adversaries.

Iran has a history of quickly restoring its missile stockpiles after the 12-day war with Israel in June of last year.

Nicole Graievski, an Iran strategy expert at Sciences Po in Paris, explained that Iran's missile program can regenerate faster than its nuclear program and that facilities are widely dispersed. She stated, "The very reason Iran has built such sophisticated missile infrastructure is due to concerns about situations like this."