Bitcoin's 90-Day Correlation with U.S. Treasury Yields is Significantly Lower than Gold, Showing Reduced Sensitivity to Rate Hikes Compared to Traditional Safe-Haven Assets

CoinCircle (120BTC.cOM) reports: Traditional views often deeply bind the performance of non-yielding assets to benchmark interest rates, but recent macro data shows structural divergence. According to CoinDesk's statistics based on TradingView, the 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is only -0.17. This data indicates that even if Treasury yields rise sharply, their direct suppressive effect on the core assets of the crypto market is extremely limited.

In contrast, the correlation coefficient between gold, the traditional safe-haven cornerstone, and this yield is -0.41, showing a more significant negative linkage. From a detailed data analysis, there are three key data benchmarks currently in the market:

• Bitcoin and 10-year U.S. Treasury yield: Correlation coefficient of -0.17, showing almost an immune state to interest rate fluctuations.
• Gold and 10-year U.S. Treasury yield: Correlation coefficient of -0.41, situated in a typical moderate negative correlation range.
• Bitcoin and gold prices: Correlation coefficient reaches 0.59, not only maintaining a positive correlation but also hitting an extreme value since 2020.

This resonance phenomenon, reaching as high as 0.59, was prominently displayed during the period of massive liquidity release by global central banks in 2020. It conveys two core signals to the market: first, in hedging against sovereign debt risks and expectations of fiat currency depreciation, funds are gradually categorizing Bitcoin and gold together as "hard assets"; second, although both maintain synchronous movement in the macro trend, the underlying price-driving engines have undergone substantial separation. The 10-year U.S. Treasury, as a benchmark interest rate for measuring macro credit, typically significantly weakens the attractiveness of non-yielding assets, but Bitcoin has evidently produced a dulled response to this traditional transmission mechanism.

Digital Scarcity Reshapes Pricing Logic

The root of this sensitivity divergence is deeply embedded in the entirely different narrative structures of the two asset classes. The traditional pricing logic of gold is tightly anchored to anti-inflation. However, the essence of central bank rate hikes is to curb overheating inflation; when expectations for rate hikes surge, the demand for anti-inflation cools, perfectly explaining why gold is constrained by rising yields.

In contrast, Bitcoin's consensus foundation is built on digital scarcity—its absolute cap of 21 million coins is entirely independent of the existing fiat currency issuance system. Institutional investors and on-chain treasury companies place greater importance on its characteristic of resisting long-term depreciation of fiat currency purchasing power. When fiscal deficits worsen and push up yields, the dual effects of expectations for fiat currency depreciation counteract each other within Bitcoin, leading to its correlation with interest rates approaching zero.

Moreover, as pricing power gradually concentrates among institutions with very long holding periods, these entities are less sensitive to short-term macro interest rate adjustments, thereby alleviating the concentrated selling pressure triggered by interest rate fluctuations.

Diversified Validation of Asset Allocation and Future Variables

From the perspective of macro asset allocation, this data chain confirms the necessity of diversification. Although the correlation between the two is relatively high, Bitcoin precisely compensates for gold's inherent weaknesses during rate hike cycles.

Looking ahead, the evolution of U.S. federal fiscal policy will become the core variable that breaks the balance. If the scale of debt continues to expand, leading to a decline in market trust in sovereign credit, both gold and Bitcoin will welcome long-term capital inflows; however, the latter, lacking interest rate constraints, may see its upward price elasticity further amplified. Another risk point that needs continuous tracking is the correlation coefficient of 0.59; if this value approaches 1.0 in the future, Bitcoin's independent safe-haven advantage compared to gold may be reassessed by the market.