Dollar Reserve Share Falls, Bitcoin Demand Remains Uncertain

A Sept. 2, 2026 analysis by New York Fed researchers reveals that the dollar share of global official foreign-exchange reserves decreased from 64% at the end of 2015 to 56% at the end of 2025, according to IMF COFER data. This decline is attributed to concentrated decisions and changes in reserve sizes among countries. Countries can adjust their currency mix, impacting the global dollar share without reducing their own dollar allocations. For instance, Switzerland's reserve growth from 2015 to 2019 lowered the global dollar share even as its dollar allocation increased. Between 2019 and 2023, 62 countries contributed positively to preferences and negatively through reserve-size changes. The analysis also notes that China, Russia, Mexico, and Morocco lacked 2023 dollar-allocation data, suggesting a negative contribution to preferences for that group. The underlying Staff Report 1087 distinguishes between reserves needed for liquidity and those for investment. It emphasizes that diversification does not indicate the destination of funds, including Bitcoin. The Czech National Bank's announcement of a 1 million dollar digital-asset test portfolio in November 2025, which included Bitcoin, was explicitly outside international reserves. The research indicates that a case for sovereign Bitcoin demand requires clear evidence of allocations, funding sources, and purchases, which a shrinking dollar share does not provide.